Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,569$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,495.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(57,495.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,629$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,313.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,313.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,548$ on 2020-06-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $291,588$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,955.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(287,955.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,213$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,174.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,174.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $249,106$ on 2020-06-10

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $242,280$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,033.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,033.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,193.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,193.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,768$ on 2020-06-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,763$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,567.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(229,567.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,114$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,964.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,964.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,710$ on 2020-06-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,814$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,002.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(50,002.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,795$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(593 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,679.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,679.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,019$ on 2020-06-10

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $192,068$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,009.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(184,009.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,322$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,246.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,794$ on 2020-06-10

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,294$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,003.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(46,003.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,061$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,919.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,919.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,052$ on 2020-06-10

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,231$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,803.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,803.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,695$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(258 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,642.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,642.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $838$ on 2020-06-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Croatia recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 94%
Andorra recovered 92%
Denmark recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 72%
Italy recovered 71%
San Marino recovered 68%
Hungary recovered 45%
Romania recovered 42%

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,249$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,210.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,210.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(20.9 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-10

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,031$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,334.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,334.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $251$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(59.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(246.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-10

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $852$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(237 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{773.2}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(773.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 21.2)}}\) (asimptote \(50.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-10

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,216$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,897.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $593$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{572.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(572.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $519$ on 2020-06-10