Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,569$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,495.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(57,495.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,629$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,313.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,313.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,548$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $291,588$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,955.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(287,955.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,213$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,174.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,174.2\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $249,106$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,280$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,033.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,033.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,193.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,193.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,768$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,763$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,567.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(229,567.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,114$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,964.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,964.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,710$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,814$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,002.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(50,002.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,795$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(593 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,679.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,679.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,019$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $192,068$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,009.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(184,009.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,322$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,246.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,794$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,294$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,003.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(46,003.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,061$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,919.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,919.2\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,052$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,231$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,803.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,803.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,695$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(258 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,642.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,642.2\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $838$ on 2020-06-10